The final week of April has arrived. This isn’t just the end of a month; it is a decisive moment where we are finally putting an end to the downward trend that has haunted us for months. With Bitcoin ETFs recording four consecutive weeks of net inflows and Ethereum ETFs seeing three weeks of positive movement, the market is clearly identifying its leaders once again. It is time to read the market through the routine of data, not the volatility of mood.
1. The Paradox of Rising Oil and Macro Stability
Looking only at the macro environment, one might expect a state of panic. WTI is at 96 dollars and Brent has surpassed 107 dollars—a surge of over 10 percent in just one week. War risks, the reigniting of inflation fears, and delayed rate cuts are all weighing on the market.
However, the fascinating part is that Bitcoin and other risk assets are rebounding as if to mock these concerns. The prevailing interpretation is that the fear of oil prices triggering inflation and halting rate cuts has already been priced in. Instead, as the perception grows that oil has reached its peak, the market is preparing for the next step: liquidity expansion following stabilization. Knowing the risk and responding is entirely different from running away in fear. The market is currently hardening as it absorbs these risks.
2. Confirmation of the Weekly Golden Cross: Technical Confidence
The Bitcoin Weekly MACD Golden Cross, which we mentioned in last week’s report, has finally entered the confirmation stage. It is not just a simple crossing of lines; the MACD histogram has increased in the positive zone for two consecutive weeks, strengthening the trend reversal. A signal on a weekly scale provides heavy reliability that is not shaken by short-term volatility.
Of course, challenges remain. Bitcoin needs to successfully break above and settle on the central moving average of the Weekly Bollinger Bands. The key is how it handles the resistance zone between 77K and 79K. Looking at the liquidation map, a mountain of short positions is stacked around 79K. The moment this area is breached, a short squeeze could occur, leading to the explosive rise we have been waiting for. Conversely, we cannot rule out a temporary shakeout to clear long positions around 74K, so it is wise to respond by confirming the trend expansion rather than rushing into a full buy.
3. Bottomed Sentiment and Undervalued Data: Opportunity Arrives Quietly
The Fear & Greed Index is currently at 45 (Neutral). Not long ago, the market was dominated by two consecutive cycles of Extreme Fear. Historically, this pattern has been a signal of accepting the surrender of retail investors and firming up the bottom. When the majority of retail investors leave the market and become indifferent, true opportunity quietly raises its head.
The MVRV Z-Score, a key on-chain metric, is currently at 0.78. Compared to the score of 3 or higher during previous peaks, the current level clearly indicates an undervalued zone. This means that market sentiment has not yet recovered and retail liquidity has not fully entered. If institutions are sweeping up supply through ETFs for four consecutive weeks while the public is still doubting, the side we should stand on is clear.
4. Alts and DeFi: Waiting for the Trickle-Down Effect
Bitcoin dominance is slightly rising. While some might see this as a crisis for altcoins, it is actually a healthy sign. Capital must first flow into Bitcoin, the leader, to pave the way before that liquidity can overflow into altcoins.
Specifically, the short-term pumping of tokens like Luna Classic (LUNC) this week is an interesting signal that market liquidity is reviving. The fact that even the remnants of collapsed projects are moving suggests that “blind money” is starting to flow back into the market. By sector, BNB ecosystem meme coins and AI Agent projects like Siren and Edge continue to show strong performance.
The Aave hacking issue that shook the DeFi market has also entered a lull. TVL, which had dropped from 26 billion to 14 billion dollars, is showing signs of stabilization, and internal metrics such as fee income are becoming steady again. Just as the market has become numb to war risks, the DeFi FUD is now perceived as a passing rain shower.
Closing Thoughts: Time to Punch the Clock Again
In conclusion, the market in this final week of April has left clues for a reversal everywhere. We are equipped with a powerful technical weapon—the Weekly Golden Cross—and a shield of supply in the form of four weeks of net inflows.
If you have been away from the market due to the exhaustion of the bear trend, now is the crucial moment to return. Trading is not a hobby you do when you feel good and skip when you feel bad. Success is guaranteed only by the persistent routine of checking indicators and reading the flow every day. I hope you do not get swayed by market noise this week and stay true to your own routine by focusing on the essence told by the data.